Tech Predictions That Were Wrong (And Right)
Predictions are fun. They're also mostly wrong. But looking back at what people expected versus what happened tells you something about how this industry actually works.
We collected predictions from tech blogs, conference talks, and our own December 2024 post. Here's how they held up.
Predictions That Were Right
AI Coding Assistants Would Become Standard
This one was almost too obvious. GitHub Copilot crossed 1.5 million paid subscribers. Cursor gained massive traction. Amazon, Google, and a dozen startups launched competitors.
The prediction was right, but the scale exceeded expectations. Most developers now use some form of AI assistance. The minority who don't are increasingly the exception.
TypeScript Would Reach Dominance
We predicted TypeScript would become the default for professional JavaScript development. That happened. The State of JS survey showed TypeScript usage above 90% for the first time. New projects in JavaScript-only are rare enough to comment on.
Server-Side Rendering Would Return
The pendulum swung back toward servers. Next.js Server Components, Remix's loaders, Astro's island architecture. The industry remembered that not everything needs to be client-rendered.
This was a correction to SPA excess. It went exactly as predicted.
The Indie Hacker Movement Would Grow
More developers went solo or small-team. The tools for building and launching got easier. AI assistance lowered the barrier. Platforms like X and YouTube helped with distribution.
We're seeing products built by one or two people that would've required teams of ten a few years ago.
Predictions That Were Wrong
Web3 Would Go Mainstream
This was a popular prediction after the 2021-2022 crypto boom. NFTs in web apps, wallet-based authentication everywhere, decentralized everything.
It didn't happen. Crypto prices crashed and stayed down for most of 2025. The developers who pivoted to Web3 pivoted back. The wallet-based auth dream died for mainstream apps.
Some blockchain applications are legitimate. But the "every app will have a token" prediction was wildly wrong.
The Metaverse Would Matter
Remember when Facebook renamed itself Meta? The prediction was that VR workspaces and virtual worlds would reshape how we work and socialize.
Reality: Zoom fatigue made people want less screen time, not more immersive screens. Meta's Horizon Workrooms remained a curiosity. Apple's Vision Pro launched to lukewarm adoption.
VR has use cases. Universal remote work in the metaverse isn't one of them.
Low-Code Would Replace Developers
Every year, someone predicts this. "The tools are getting so good that soon you won't need developers."
Low-code tools got better. They're useful for internal tools, simple automations, and prototypes. But they didn't replace developers. The complexity that requires custom code is still there. The bar just moved up.
Professional developers are more valuable than ever. The boring stuff got automated, leaving the interesting problems.
Remote Work Would Reverse
Some predicted that companies would force everyone back to offices by 2025. A hard return to 2019 norms.
It didn't happen. Hybrid became the default. Fully remote is less common than 2021 but more common than 2019. Most tech workers still have flexibility. The companies that went hard on return-to-office struggled to hire.
JavaScript Fatigue Would End
Optimists predicted that the framework churn would stop. We'd settle on solutions and stop rewriting everything.
The churn slowed but didn't stop. New frameworks still launch. Existing frameworks still release major breaking versions. We've learned to accept it rather than wait for stability that isn't coming.
Predictions That Were Half Right
AI Would Replace Junior Developer Jobs
This was genuinely scary to a lot of people. AI writes code. Junior developers write simple code. Therefore, AI replaces junior developers.
The half-right part: some junior tasks got automated. Boilerplate generation, simple bug fixes, documentation. Companies might hire fewer juniors for grunt work.
The half-wrong part: junior positions still exist. The job changed but didn't disappear. Juniors who adapt and use AI tools effectively are more productive than ever. The ones who refuse to adapt struggle, but that's always been true when technology shifts.
Edge Computing Would Dominate
Cloudflare, Vercel, and others pushed edge functions hard. The prediction was that edge-first architecture would become standard.
Edge computing grew significantly. For global consumer apps, it makes sense. For most B2B applications, the complexity isn't worth it. Edge is a tool, not a revolution.
Rust Would Replace C++
Rust adoption grew in systems programming. More developers learned it. Major projects adopted it.
But C++ didn't die. Legacy codebases still exist. Many developers still prefer C++ for their use cases. Rust gained ground without winning the war.
What This Teaches Us
Looking at the hits and misses, some patterns emerge:
Evolution beats revolution: Predictions about gradual improvement (TypeScript, AI tools, SSR) were more accurate than predictions about revolutionary change (metaverse, Web3).
Developer preferences are sticky: People don't abandon working tools quickly. Migrations happen slowly. New tech needs to be significantly better, not just different.
Hype cycles mislead: Things that get the most attention aren't always the things that matter. Quiet improvements often outperform loud launches.
Our Predictions for 2026
Given our track record, take these with appropriate skepticism:
- AI agents will handle multi-step coding tasks, not just autocomplete
- At least one major framework will simplify significantly
- More companies will open-source to gain developer trust
- The "just use boring technology" movement will grow
We'll check back next December and see how wrong we were.